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Definitive Analysis

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Trican Well Service Ltd. (TCW.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.79 - $7.20$5.93
Multi-Stage$9.49 - $10.44$9.96
Blended Fair Value$7.94
Current Price$4.51
Upside76.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-2.27%0.190.180.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.12
YoY Growth--3.61%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-50.05%
Dividend Yield--4.00%4.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%9.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)107.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)69.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.5713.488.09
Cash Retained (M)69.3769.3769.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.57-13.48-8.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)47.8055.8861.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)190.67190.67190.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.290.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.290.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.79$5.93$7.20
Upside / Downside6.16%31.50%59.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)107.85106.77105.71104.65103.60102.57105.64
Payout Ratio35.68%46.55%57.41%68.27%79.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.4949.7060.6971.4581.9992.3197.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)45.8746.3446.80
Year 2 PV (M)51.6952.7553.82
Year 3 PV (M)56.1657.9059.67
Year 4 PV (M)59.4761.9464.48
Year 5 PV (M)61.8065.0168.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,534.851,614.771,697.99
Equity Value (M)1,809.831,898.701,991.12
Shares Outstanding (M)190.67190.67190.67
Fair Value$9.49$9.96$10.44
Upside / Downside110.46%120.80%131.55%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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