Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tesco PLC (TCO0.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.13 - $8.90$6.75
Multi-Stage$9.76 - $10.72$10.23
Blended Fair Value$8.49
Current Price$3.76
Upside125.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.66%-0.56%0.120.110.120.100.130.090.050.010.000.00
YoY Growth--11.20%-9.55%17.51%-19.67%38.72%83.75%335.37%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--3.27%3.96%4.73%3.58%5.39%3.23%1.77%0.43%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,820.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,642.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,178.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)564.00352.50211.50
Cash Retained (M)1,178.001,178.001,178.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-564.00-352.50-211.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)614.00825.50966.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,035.917,035.917,035.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate0.08%1.08%2.08%
Fair Value$5.13$6.75$8.90
Upside / Downside36.55%79.57%136.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,820.002,850.372,881.062,912.092,943.452,975.143,064.40
Payout Ratio58.23%64.58%70.94%77.29%83.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,642.001,840.812,043.722,250.782,462.062,677.632,834.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate0.08%1.08%2.08%
Year 1 PV (M)1,714.151,731.281,748.40
Year 2 PV (M)1,772.141,807.731,843.68
Year 3 PV (M)1,817.391,872.421,928.54
Year 4 PV (M)1,851.201,926.312,003.68
Year 5 PV (M)1,874.751,970.312,069.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)59,653.6762,694.2265,857.51
Equity Value (M)68,683.3072,002.2675,451.54
Shares Outstanding (M)7,035.917,035.917,035.91
Fair Value$9.76$10.23$10.72
Upside / Downside159.62%172.17%185.21%

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