Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sermsuk Public Company Limited (SSC.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Non-AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$71.37 - $302.50$177.47
Multi-Stage$35.85 - $39.21$37.50
Blended Fair Value$107.48
Current Price$62.50
Upside71.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS221.06%103.08%0.520.340.340.320.250.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--52.90%-0.01%6.27%27.96%16,311.26%0.00%-100.00%-97.30%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.83%1.01%0.97%1.06%0.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)404.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)138.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)266.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.8950.5630.33
Cash Retained (M)266.27266.27266.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.89-50.56-30.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)185.37215.71235.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)265.90265.90265.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.700.810.89
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.700.810.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.221.331.41
WACC / Discount Rate7.30%7.30%7.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$71.37$177.47$302.50
Upside / Downside14.20%183.95%384.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)404.45430.74458.74488.56520.32554.14570.76
Payout Ratio34.17%45.33%56.50%67.67%78.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)138.19195.27259.19330.59410.18498.72527.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.30%7.30%7.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)180.28181.99183.70
Year 2 PV (M)220.92225.13229.37
Year 3 PV (M)260.15267.61275.22
Year 4 PV (M)298.00309.46321.24
Year 5 PV (M)334.50350.66367.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,237.588,635.469,048.57
Equity Value (M)9,531.439,970.3110,425.54
Shares Outstanding (M)265.90265.90265.90
Fair Value$35.85$37.50$39.21
Upside / Downside-42.65%-40.01%-37.27%

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