Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SNGN Romgaz S.A. (SNGR.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$93.92 - $278.73$261.21
Multi-Stage$38.34 - $41.94$40.10
Blended Fair Value$150.65
Current Price$46.77
Upside222.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS-4.65%2.20%0.620.690.330.290.760.790.440.490.570.47
YoY Growth---9.99%112.16%11.23%-61.40%-3.86%80.73%-11.12%-14.34%22.93%-6.78%
Dividend Yield--1.33%1.84%0.83%0.90%2.76%2.46%1.16%1.65%2.20%1.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,963.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,342.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,621.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)592.74370.46222.28
Cash Retained (M)1,621.401,621.401,621.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-592.74-370.46-222.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,028.661,250.941,399.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,114.632,114.632,114.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.590.66
LTM Dividend per Share0.630.630.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.590.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.121.231.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$93.92$261.21$278.73
Upside / Downside100.81%458.49%495.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,963.683,156.323,361.483,579.983,812.684,060.504,182.32
Payout Ratio45.29%54.23%63.17%72.12%81.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,342.291,711.762,123.612,581.753,090.493,654.453,868.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,588.331,603.381,618.44
Year 2 PV (M)1,828.381,863.211,898.36
Year 3 PV (M)2,062.552,121.762,182.09
Year 4 PV (M)2,290.942,379.042,469.66
Year 5 PV (M)2,513.652,635.062,761.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)70,780.5474,199.2777,748.84
Equity Value (M)81,064.3984,801.7188,678.50
Shares Outstanding (M)2,114.632,114.632,114.63
Fair Value$38.34$40.10$41.94
Upside / Downside-18.03%-14.26%-10.34%

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