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Definitive Analysis

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Srisawad Capital 1969 Public Company Limited (SCAP.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.32 - $2.12$1.68
Multi-Stage$3.42 - $3.78$3.59
Blended Fair Value$2.64
Current Price$1.29
Upside104.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-14.30%0.000.310.070.120.190.000.000.000.010.01
YoY Growth---99.28%360.60%-41.43%-37.78%0.00%-100.00%5.02%-91.43%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.19%11.27%1.30%2.33%2.93%0.00%0.03%0.01%0.41%1.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)853.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)837.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)170.64106.6563.99
Cash Retained (M)837.92837.92837.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-170.64-106.65-63.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)667.28731.27773.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,624.266,624.266,624.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate5.68%5.68%5.68%
Growth Rate-1.95%-0.95%0.05%
Fair Value$1.32$1.68$2.12
Upside / Downside2.65%30.52%64.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)853.18845.06837.01829.04821.14813.32837.72
Payout Ratio1.79%19.43%37.07%54.72%72.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.27164.21310.31453.61594.16731.99774.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.68%5.68%5.68%
Growth Rate-1.95%-0.95%0.05%
Year 1 PV (M)153.82155.38156.95
Year 2 PV (M)272.28277.86283.50
Year 3 PV (M)372.84384.37396.12
Year 4 PV (M)457.46476.41495.94
Year 5 PV (M)527.92555.39584.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,875.7921,962.3023,093.59
Equity Value (M)22,660.1123,811.7225,010.12
Shares Outstanding (M)6,624.266,624.266,624.26
Fair Value$3.42$3.59$3.78
Upside / Downside165.18%178.65%192.68%

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