Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Qatar Navigation Q.P.S.C. (QNNS.QA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.33 - $31.70$22.44
Multi-Stage$24.86 - $27.29$26.05
Blended Fair Value$24.25
Current Price$11.17
Upside117.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.56%-2.84%0.380.350.300.300.300.300.350.350.500.55
YoY Growth--7.14%16.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%-14.29%0.00%-30.00%-9.09%10.00%
Dividend Yield--3.41%3.31%3.65%3.49%3.90%6.25%5.34%6.25%6.54%6.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,165.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)454.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)711.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)233.16145.7287.43
Cash Retained (M)711.32711.32711.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-233.16-145.72-87.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)478.16565.60623.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,136.171,136.171,136.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.500.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.500.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.820.900.95
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate1.41%2.41%3.41%
Fair Value$16.33$22.44$31.70
Upside / Downside46.23%100.94%183.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,165.791,193.891,222.681,252.151,282.341,313.261,352.66
Payout Ratio38.98%49.19%59.39%69.59%79.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)454.47587.24726.15871.421,023.271,181.931,251.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate1.41%2.41%3.41%
Year 1 PV (M)545.98551.36556.74
Year 2 PV (M)627.69640.13652.69
Year 3 PV (M)700.33721.25742.59
Year 4 PV (M)764.58795.19826.70
Year 5 PV (M)821.08862.37905.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,781.5826,027.7627,323.57
Equity Value (M)28,241.2329,598.0531,007.59
Shares Outstanding (M)1,136.171,136.171,136.17
Fair Value$24.86$26.05$27.29
Upside / Downside122.53%133.22%144.33%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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