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Definitive Analysis

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P.T. Bank Pan Indonesia Tbk (PNBN.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$931.20 - $1,399.40$1,152.76
Multi-Stage$1,947.47 - $2,143.39$2,043.50
Blended Fair Value$1,598.13
Current Price$1,080.00
Upside47.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.008.0319.980.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-59.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.70%1.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,669,386.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,010,762.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,658,624.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)533,877.20333,673.25200,203.95
Cash Retained (M)1,658,624.001,658,624.001,658,624.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-533,877.20-333,673.25-200,203.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,124,746.801,324,950.751,458,420.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24,075.1824,075.1824,075.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share46.7255.0360.58
LTM Dividend per Share41.9841.9841.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share46.7255.0360.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend88.7097.02102.56
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.27%-1.27%-0.27%
Fair Value$931.20$1,152.76$1,399.40
Upside / Downside-13.78%6.74%29.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,669,386.002,635,369.142,601,785.782,568,630.372,535,897.482,503,581.712,578,689.16
Payout Ratio37.86%48.29%58.72%69.15%79.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,010,762.001,272,671.671,527,742.001,776,104.772,017,889.512,253,223.542,385,287.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.27%-1.27%-0.27%
Year 1 PV (M)1,176,985.531,189,029.301,201,073.07
Year 2 PV (M)1,306,650.711,333,528.721,360,680.38
Year 3 PV (M)1,404,859.251,448,428.681,492,889.74
Year 4 PV (M)1,476,101.981,537,453.881,600,698.68
Year 5 PV (M)1,524,326.521,603,929.121,686,823.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)39,996,662.1042,085,347.2944,260,394.54
Equity Value (M)46,885,586.0849,197,716.9851,602,559.50
Shares Outstanding (M)24,075.1824,075.1824,075.18
Fair Value$1,947.47$2,043.50$2,143.39
Upside / Downside80.32%89.21%98.46%

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