Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN Spólka Akcyjna (PKN.WA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$620.13 - $1,838.52$1,722.97
Multi-Stage$252.88 - $276.64$264.54
Blended Fair Value$993.75
Current Price$82.10
Upside1,110.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.26%22.82%4.155.501.291.290.371.291.111.110.740.61
YoY Growth---24.53%326.52%0.00%249.77%-71.50%17.07%0.00%50.06%21.10%14.42%
Dividend Yield--6.10%8.31%2.21%1.70%0.58%2.32%1.11%1.31%0.74%0.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,732.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,819.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,913.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,146.401,341.50804.90
Cash Retained (M)5,913.005,913.005,913.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,146.40-1,341.50-804.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,766.604,571.505,108.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,160.891,160.891,160.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.243.944.40
LTM Dividend per Share4.154.154.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.243.944.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.408.098.55
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$620.13$1,722.97$1,838.52
Upside / Downside655.33%1,998.62%2,139.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,732.0011,429.5812,172.5012,963.7213,806.3614,703.7715,144.88
Payout Ratio44.90%53.92%62.94%71.96%80.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,819.006,163.117,661.609,328.8511,180.4713,233.3914,009.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,718.765,772.965,827.17
Year 2 PV (M)6,596.646,722.296,849.12
Year 3 PV (M)7,453.037,666.987,884.99
Year 4 PV (M)8,288.328,607.078,934.92
Year 5 PV (M)9,102.899,542.569,999.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)256,410.70268,795.43281,654.16
Equity Value (M)293,570.34307,107.30321,149.42
Shares Outstanding (M)1,160.891,160.891,160.89
Fair Value$252.88$264.54$276.64
Upside / Downside208.02%222.22%236.96%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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