Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$149.20 - $270.71$199.77
Multi-Stage$140.40 - $153.57$146.87
Blended Fair Value$173.32
Current Price$128.82
Upside34.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.71%9.00%1.851.651.501.391.261.161.100.970.860.82
YoY Growth--11.94%10.17%7.63%10.51%8.34%6.04%13.38%12.34%5.27%4.73%
Dividend Yield--1.96%1.34%1.80%1.38%1.06%1.23%1.79%1.06%1.33%2.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)666.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)128.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)538.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)133.2683.2949.97
Cash Retained (M)538.10538.10538.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-133.26-83.29-49.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)404.84454.81488.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)65.0165.0165.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.237.007.51
LTM Dividend per Share1.971.971.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.237.007.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.208.979.48
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate3.85%4.85%5.85%
Fair Value$149.20$199.77$270.71
Upside / Downside15.82%55.07%110.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)666.30698.58732.43767.92805.13844.13869.46
Payout Ratio19.24%33.39%47.54%61.70%75.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)128.20233.27348.23473.78610.67759.72804.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate3.85%4.85%5.85%
Year 1 PV (M)210.90212.94214.97
Year 2 PV (M)284.64290.15295.71
Year 3 PV (M)350.13360.34370.75
Year 4 PV (M)408.02423.97440.37
Year 5 PV (M)458.93481.46504.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,415.237,779.218,157.34
Equity Value (M)9,127.869,548.069,984.00
Shares Outstanding (M)65.0165.0165.01
Fair Value$140.40$146.87$153.57
Upside / Downside8.99%14.01%19.21%

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