Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Nutrition SC Public Company Limited (NTSC.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.81 - $13.77$11.09
Multi-Stage$20.62 - $22.73$21.65
Blended Fair Value$16.37
Current Price$5.70
Upside187.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.220.003.680.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.08%0.00%133.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)114.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)98.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.8814.308.58
Cash Retained (M)98.4198.4198.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.88-14.30-8.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)75.5384.1189.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)124.88124.88124.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.600.670.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.600.670.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.730.800.85
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8.81$11.09$13.77
Upside / Downside54.49%94.55%141.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)114.41113.27112.13111.01109.90108.80112.07
Payout Ratio13.98%29.19%44.39%59.59%74.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.0033.0649.7866.1682.2097.92103.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)30.8331.1431.46
Year 2 PV (M)43.2844.1745.07
Year 3 PV (M)53.6455.3056.99
Year 4 PV (M)62.1564.7367.38
Year 5 PV (M)69.0472.6476.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,315.552,436.122,561.67
Equity Value (M)2,574.502,704.102,838.95
Shares Outstanding (M)124.88124.88124.88
Fair Value$20.62$21.65$22.73
Upside / Downside261.67%279.88%298.83%

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