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Definitive Analysis

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National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - Healthcare FacilitiesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.40 - $47.31$38.21
Multi-Stage$56.24 - $61.76$58.95
Blended Fair Value$48.58
Current Price$79.50
Upside-38.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.73%4.51%3.373.363.483.944.193.873.563.302.982.68
YoY Growth--0.17%-3.42%-11.55%-6.00%8.26%8.68%8.07%10.66%10.95%23.85%
Dividend Yield--4.56%5.45%6.75%6.67%5.80%7.82%4.55%4.90%4.10%4.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)147.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)80.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)66.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.4518.4111.04
Cash Retained (M)66.8866.8866.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.45-18.41-11.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.4348.4755.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)46.4446.4446.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.811.041.20
LTM Dividend per Share1.731.731.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.811.041.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.542.772.93
WACC / Discount Rate7.32%7.32%7.32%
Growth Rate-0.95%0.05%1.05%
Fair Value$30.40$38.21$47.31
Upside / Downside-61.76%-51.94%-40.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)147.26147.33147.41147.49147.57147.65152.07
Payout Ratio54.58%61.67%68.75%75.83%82.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)80.3890.86101.35111.85122.36132.88140.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.32%7.32%7.32%
Growth Rate-0.95%0.05%1.05%
Year 1 PV (M)83.8284.6685.51
Year 2 PV (M)86.2588.0089.76
Year 3 PV (M)87.8190.4993.23
Year 4 PV (M)88.6192.2595.99
Year 5 PV (M)88.7893.3598.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,176.602,288.712,405.40
Equity Value (M)2,611.862,737.462,868.00
Shares Outstanding (M)46.4446.4446.44
Fair Value$56.24$58.95$61.76
Upside / Downside-29.26%-25.85%-22.32%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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