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Definitive Analysis

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Magazine Luiza S.A. (MGLU3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.04 - $98.75$68.70
Multi-Stage$12.33 - $13.48$12.89
Blended Fair Value$40.80
Current Price$9.60
Upside324.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.130.200.400.250.150.040.000.05
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-31.59%-51.19%64.51%59.27%253.03%0.00%-100.00%6.35%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.41%0.29%0.20%0.25%0.29%0.14%0.00%3.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)367.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)225.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)142.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)73.5645.9827.59
Cash Retained (M)142.82142.82142.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-73.56-45.98-27.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)69.2596.84115.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)740.74740.74740.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.130.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.130.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.430.46
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25.04$68.70$98.75
Upside / Downside160.85%615.61%928.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)367.82391.73417.19444.31473.19503.94519.06
Payout Ratio61.17%66.94%72.70%78.47%84.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)225.00262.21303.31348.64398.58453.55480.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)242.36244.66246.96
Year 2 PV (M)259.13264.06269.05
Year 3 PV (M)275.31283.21291.27
Year 4 PV (M)290.93302.11313.62
Year 5 PV (M)305.98320.76336.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,761.208,136.078,525.28
Equity Value (M)9,134.919,550.889,982.28
Shares Outstanding (M)740.74740.74740.74
Fair Value$12.33$12.89$13.48
Upside / Downside28.46%34.31%40.38%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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