Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Map Aktif Adiperkasa Tbk (MAPA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$336.73 - $480.46$407.31
Multi-Stage$509.59 - $560.36$534.48
Blended Fair Value$470.89
Current Price$540.00
Upside-12.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%5.004.000.000.000.000.000.007.376.350.00
YoY Growth--25.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%16.04%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.76%0.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.34%2.02%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,414,401.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)114,016.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,300,385.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)282,880.20176,800.13106,080.08
Cash Retained (M)1,300,385.001,300,385.001,300,385.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-282,880.20-176,800.13-106,080.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,017,504.801,123,584.881,194,304.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)28,504.0028,504.0028,504.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share35.7039.4241.90
LTM Dividend per Share4.004.004.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share35.7039.4241.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend39.7043.4245.90
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$336.73$407.31$480.46
Upside / Downside-37.64%-24.57%-11.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,414,401.001,400,256.991,386,254.421,372,391.881,358,667.961,345,081.281,385,433.72
Payout Ratio8.06%24.45%40.84%57.22%73.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)114,016.00342,346.93566,099.84785,343.461,000,145.591,210,573.151,281,526.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)309,336.92312,493.42315,649.92
Year 2 PV (M)462,193.32471,673.96481,250.86
Year 3 PV (M)579,369.44597,286.83615,569.87
Year 4 PV (M)666,690.85694,322.07722,803.41
Year 5 PV (M)729,151.25767,119.85806,653.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,778,564.3612,391,901.5313,030,527.01
Equity Value (M)14,525,306.1415,234,797.6715,972,454.98
Shares Outstanding (M)28,504.0028,504.0028,504.00
Fair Value$509.59$534.48$560.36
Upside / Downside-5.63%-1.02%3.77%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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