Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $9.66 - $12.96 | $11.36 |
| Multi-Stage | $19.83 - $21.83 | $20.81 |
| Blended Fair Value | $16.09 | |
| Current Price | $53.79 | |
| Upside | -70.09% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -24.26% | -13.04% | 0.83 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.85 | 3.34 | 3.32 | 3.27 | 4.13 | 3.82 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 93.44% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -100.00% | -74.52% | 0.64% | 1.77% | -20.96% | 8.02% | 13.41% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.16% | 0.81% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.40% | 7.87% | 5.25% | 4.54% | 7.24% | 7.40% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,556.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 809.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 747.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 311.20 | 194.50 | 116.70 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 747.00 | 747.00 | 747.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -311.20 | -194.50 | -116.70 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 435.80 | 552.50 | 630.30 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 707.75 | 707.75 | 707.75 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.62 | 0.78 | 0.89 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.14 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.62 | 0.78 | 0.89 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.76 | 1.92 | 2.03 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -7.70% | -6.70% | -5.70% |
| Fair Value | $9.66 | $11.36 | $12.96 |
| Upside / Downside | -82.04% | -78.88% | -75.91% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,556.00 | 1,451.71 | 1,354.42 | 1,263.64 | 1,178.95 | 1,099.93 | 1,132.93 |
| Payout Ratio | 51.99% | 59.59% | 67.20% | 74.80% | 82.40% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 809.00 | 865.13 | 910.11 | 945.16 | 971.44 | 989.94 | 1,047.96 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -7.70% | -6.70% | -5.70% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 784.49 | 792.99 | 801.49 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 748.34 | 764.64 | 781.12 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 704.72 | 727.88 | 751.53 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 656.79 | 685.72 | 715.60 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 606.91 | 640.51 | 675.58 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 10,535.95 | 11,119.21 | 11,728.02 |
| Equity Value (M) | 14,037.20 | 14,730.94 | 15,453.33 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 707.75 | 707.75 | 707.75 |
| Fair Value | $19.83 | $20.81 | $21.83 |
| Upside / Downside | -63.13% | -61.31% | -59.41% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTBT | Bit Digital, Inc. | 0.25% | $0.01 | 1.17% |
| PVH | PVH Corp. | 0.25% | $0.17 | 2.41% |
| AEL | American Equity Investment Life Holding Company | 0.24% | $0.14 | 2.19% |
| CRS | Carpenter Technology Corporation | 0.24% | $0.80 | 9.74% |
| L | Loews Corporation | 0.24% | $0.25 | 3.58% |
| PRIM | Primoris Services Corporation | 0.23% | $0.30 | 5.83% |
| TER | Teradyne, Inc. | 0.23% | $0.48 | 17.39% |
| FOCS | Focus Financial Partners Inc. | 0.22% | $0.12 | 19.23% |
| QCRH | QCR Holdings, Inc. | 0.22% | $0.18 | 2.50% |
| RMAX | RE/MAX Holdings, Inc. | 0.22% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| VSEC | VSE Corporation | 0.22% | $0.40 | 30.98% |
| 0J5I.L | Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | 0.21% | $0.60 | 8.71% |
| PRVAX | Virginia Tax Free Bond Fund | 0.21% | $0.02 | 89.04% |
| ACA | Arcosa, Inc. | 0.19% | $0.20 | 6.66% |
| HWM | Howmet Aerospace Inc. | 0.19% | $0.40 | 11.24% |
| USLM | United States Lime & Minerals, Inc. | 0.19% | $0.23 | 5.04% |
| AEIS | Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. | 0.18% | $0.40 | 10.65% |
| BELFA | Bel Fuse Inc. | 0.18% | $0.28 | 5.31% |
| TILE | Interface, Inc. | 0.18% | $0.05 | 2.63% |
| 0K05.L | Medifast, Inc. | 0.17% | $0.02 | 78.63% |
| AYI | Acuity Brands, Inc. | 0.17% | $0.65 | 5.19% |
| BDC | Belden Inc. | 0.17% | $0.20 | 3.53% |
| FIX | Comfort Systems USA, Inc. | 0.17% | $1.70 | 7.18% |
| KNSL | Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | 0.17% | $0.66 | 3.24% |
| STCN | Steel Connect, Inc. | 0.17% | $0.02 | 1.98% |
| VVI | Viad Corp | 0.17% | $0.07 | 0.54% |
| ALNT | Allient Inc. | 0.16% | $0.09 | 7.91% |
| CLSK | CleanSpark, Inc. | 0.16% | $0.02 | 1.41% |
| EME | EMCOR Group, Inc. | 0.16% | $1.01 | 4.01% |
| ESE | ESCO Technologies Inc. | 0.16% | $0.32 | 2.76% |
| CW | Curtiss-Wright Corporation | 0.15% | $0.87 | 7.08% |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 0.15% | $0.46 | 6.11% |
| SPCMU | Sound Point Acquisition Corp I, Ltd | 0.15% | $0.02 | 1.33% |
| ENSG | The Ensign Group, Inc. | 0.14% | $0.24 | 4.34% |
| JBL | Jabil Inc. | 0.14% | $0.33 | 5.48% |
| PFIE | Profire Energy, Inc. | 0.14% | $0.00 | 1.99% |
| 0R0A.L | Hecla Mining Company | 0.13% | $0.02 | 5.24% |
| GNW | Genworth Financial, Inc. | 0.13% | $0.01 | 2.27% |
| ONIT | Onity Group Inc. | 0.13% | $0.06 | 1.46% |
| 0A7O.L | MicroStrategy Incorporated | 0.12% | $0.19 | 0.73% |
| 0KGS.L | Pegasystems Inc. | 0.12% | $0.07 | 4.63% |
| PRTAX | T. Rowe Price Tax-Free Income Fd | 0.12% | $0.01 | 89.04% |
| WDC | Western Digital Corporation | 0.12% | $0.22 | 3.25% |
| GEV | GE Vernova Inc. | 0.11% | $0.75 | 12.15% |
| MPLF.L | Marble Point Loan Financing Limited | 0.11% | $0.07 | 92.98% |
| EPAC | Enerpac Tool Group Corp. | 0.10% | $0.04 | 2.34% |
| GRBK | Green Brick Partners, Inc. | 0.10% | $0.07 | 0.85% |
| IR | Ingersoll Rand Inc. | 0.10% | $0.08 | 5.89% |
| RAL | Ralliant Corp. | 0.10% | $0.05 | 2.75% |
| TXT | Textron Inc. | 0.10% | $0.08 | 1.79% |