Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Kino Indonesia Tbk (KINO.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$661.70 - $947.18$801.59
Multi-Stage$1,874.83 - $2,068.45$1,969.68
Blended Fair Value$1,385.63
Current Price$1,195.00
Upside15.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-17.38%-3.07%22.730.7310.0024.87106.7259.0627.9725.9038.340.00
YoY Growth--2,996.34%-92.66%-59.78%-76.70%80.70%111.11%8.00%-32.43%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.05%0.05%0.66%0.73%5.16%2.94%1.10%1.31%1.53%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)137,117.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)77,453.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)59,664.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27,423.5317,139.7110,283.82
Cash Retained (M)59,664.0659,664.0659,664.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-27,423.53-17,139.71-10,283.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)32,240.5342,524.3549,380.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,378.821,378.821,378.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share23.3830.8435.81
LTM Dividend per Share56.1756.1756.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share23.3830.8435.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend79.5687.0291.99
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-5.07%-4.07%-3.07%
Fair Value$661.70$801.59$947.18
Upside / Downside-44.63%-32.92%-20.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)137,117.67131,538.15126,185.68121,051.01116,125.28111,399.97114,741.97
Payout Ratio56.49%63.19%69.89%76.59%83.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)77,453.6083,118.3988,193.9292,718.7696,729.33100,259.98106,136.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-5.07%-4.07%-3.07%
Year 1 PV (M)77,344.8378,159.5878,974.33
Year 2 PV (M)76,367.2177,984.5979,618.91
Year 3 PV (M)74,708.5077,094.4079,530.55
Year 4 PV (M)72,526.1775,630.7578,833.96
Year 5 PV (M)69,951.7073,714.5077,637.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,214,147.902,333,249.822,457,422.79
Equity Value (M)2,585,046.322,715,833.632,852,018.04
Shares Outstanding (M)1,378.821,378.821,378.82
Fair Value$1,874.83$1,969.68$2,068.45
Upside / Downside56.89%64.83%73.09%

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