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Definitive Analysis

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Index Living Mall Public Company Limited (ILM-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.74 - $21.24$17.22
Multi-Stage$31.75 - $34.91$33.30
Blended Fair Value$25.26
Current Price$15.60
Upside61.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-27.08%0.00%1.000.850.600.420.614.870.990.400.540.00
YoY Growth--17.65%41.68%42.84%-31.14%-87.43%390.00%150.00%-25.93%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.22%3.98%2.88%1.79%3.97%60.07%4.51%1.81%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)745.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)505.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)239.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)149.0193.1355.88
Cash Retained (M)239.98239.98239.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-149.01-93.13-55.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)90.97146.85184.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)503.49503.49503.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.290.37
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.290.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.181.291.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$13.74$17.22$21.24
Upside / Downside-11.93%10.38%36.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)745.07737.62730.24722.94715.71708.55729.81
Payout Ratio67.79%72.23%76.67%81.12%85.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)505.08532.80559.91586.42612.35637.70675.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)495.48500.54505.60
Year 2 PV (M)484.23494.16504.20
Year 3 PV (M)471.64486.23501.11
Year 4 PV (M)458.00476.98496.55
Year 5 PV (M)443.56466.66490.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,632.0114,341.8715,080.98
Equity Value (M)15,984.9316,766.4417,579.14
Shares Outstanding (M)503.49503.49503.49
Fair Value$31.75$33.30$34.91
Upside / Downside103.51%113.46%123.81%

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