Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Gowa Makassar Tourism Development Tbk (GMTD.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$196.03 - $291.66$241.60
Multi-Stage$252.16 - $276.62$264.16
Blended Fair Value$252.88
Current Price$2,520.00
Upside-89.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.83%-7.47%2.300.300.000.000.002.001.602.504.506.50
YoY Growth--666.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%25.00%-36.00%-44.44%-30.77%30.00%
Dividend Yield--0.10%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.11%0.08%0.19%0.85%0.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)23,911.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,335.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)21,576.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,782.392,988.991,793.39
Cash Retained (M)21,576.5621,576.5621,576.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,782.39-2,988.99-1,793.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)16,794.1718,587.5619,783.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,015.381,015.381,015.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share16.5418.3119.48
LTM Dividend per Share2.302.302.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share16.5418.3119.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend18.8420.6121.78
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate0.35%1.35%2.35%
Fair Value$196.03$241.60$291.66
Upside / Downside-92.22%-90.41%-88.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)23,911.9324,235.9424,564.3324,897.1825,234.5325,576.4626,343.75
Payout Ratio9.77%25.81%41.86%57.91%73.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,335.376,256.0810,282.6114,417.1218,661.7723,018.8124,367.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate0.35%1.35%2.35%
Year 1 PV (M)5,631.255,687.365,743.48
Year 2 PV (M)8,331.218,498.088,666.59
Year 3 PV (M)10,514.4210,831.8811,155.67
Year 4 PV (M)12,250.7412,746.3913,256.92
Year 5 PV (M)13,601.7514,293.0715,012.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)205,708.57216,163.92227,040.13
Equity Value (M)256,037.95268,220.70280,875.01
Shares Outstanding (M)1,015.381,015.381,015.38
Fair Value$252.16$264.16$276.62
Upside / Downside-89.99%-89.52%-89.02%

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