Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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PJSC Mining and Metallurgical Company Norilsk Nickel (GMKN.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.86 - $1.13$1.00
Multi-Stage$1.64 - $1.81$1.73
Blended Fair Value$1.36
Current Price$1.42
Upside-3.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-18.70%-7.65%0.100.000.410.140.270.270.220.190.080.19
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%181.89%-47.23%-0.02%23.66%13.40%141.15%-56.91%-12.86%
Dividend Yield--9.22%0.00%19.58%4.73%8.54%8.85%11.79%10.34%4.88%14.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,569.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,498.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,071.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)713.80446.13267.68
Cash Retained (M)2,071.002,071.002,071.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-713.80-446.13-267.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,357.201,624.881,803.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,286.3415,286.3415,286.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.200.22
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-9.65%-8.65%-7.65%
Fair Value$0.86$1.00$1.13
Upside / Downside-39.45%-29.44%-20.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,569.003,260.202,978.112,720.432,485.052,270.032,338.13
Payout Ratio41.97%51.58%61.18%70.79%80.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,498.001,681.541,822.111,925.771,997.842,043.032,162.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-9.65%-8.65%-7.65%
Year 1 PV (M)1,512.311,529.051,545.79
Year 2 PV (M)1,473.801,506.611,539.78
Year 3 PV (M)1,400.881,447.911,495.99
Year 4 PV (M)1,307.041,365.881,426.68
Year 5 PV (M)1,202.091,270.101,341.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,248.8219,281.3420,360.09
Equity Value (M)25,144.9426,400.8927,709.48
Shares Outstanding (M)15,286.3415,286.3415,286.34
Fair Value$1.64$1.73$1.81
Upside / Downside15.84%21.63%27.65%

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