Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Grupo México, S.A.B. de C.V. (GMEXICOB.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.55 - $20.38$13.59
Multi-Stage$7.34 - $8.00$7.67
Blended Fair Value$10.63
Current Price$6.06
Upside75.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.93%11.45%0.290.300.320.370.170.210.180.090.040.07
YoY Growth---2.56%-7.27%-14.32%116.17%-16.48%17.65%101.04%130.11%-46.66%-27.12%
Dividend Yield--5.79%4.94%6.76%6.24%3.28%11.18%6.17%2.65%1.27%2.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,887.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,311.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,576.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)777.50485.94291.56
Cash Retained (M)1,576.251,576.251,576.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-777.50-485.94-291.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)798.751,090.311,284.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,694.217,694.217,694.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.140.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.140.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.440.47
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.55$13.59$20.38
Upside / Downside57.61%124.24%236.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,887.514,140.204,409.314,695.915,001.155,326.225,486.01
Payout Ratio59.45%65.56%71.67%77.78%83.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,311.262,714.433,160.243,652.554,195.504,793.605,074.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,445.272,468.452,491.63
Year 2 PV (M)2,564.592,613.442,662.75
Year 3 PV (M)2,670.192,746.852,824.95
Year 4 PV (M)2,762.992,869.252,978.54
Year 5 PV (M)2,843.852,981.213,123.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)43,224.7545,312.5347,480.20
Equity Value (M)56,511.6658,991.7261,561.90
Shares Outstanding (M)7,694.217,694.217,694.21
Fair Value$7.34$7.67$8.00
Upside / Downside21.20%26.52%32.03%

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