Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Siam Global House Public Company Limited (GLOBAL-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Home ImprovementSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.34 - $12.65$8.81
Multi-Stage$8.89 - $9.75$9.31
Blended Fair Value$9.06
Current Price$7.60
Upside19.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.19%33.54%0.160.230.220.150.160.150.130.110.030.01
YoY Growth---28.64%4.27%43.97%-5.57%4.86%15.97%17.10%281.58%227.98%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.41%1.41%1.27%0.74%0.90%2.04%0.98%0.96%0.25%0.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,057.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)958.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,099.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)411.59257.24154.35
Cash Retained (M)1,099.381,099.381,099.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-411.59-257.24-154.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)687.79842.14945.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,401.935,401.935,401.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.160.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.160.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate1.84%2.84%3.84%
Fair Value$6.34$8.81$12.65
Upside / Downside-16.53%15.87%66.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,057.962,116.312,176.322,238.032,301.502,366.762,437.76
Payout Ratio46.58%55.26%63.95%72.63%81.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)958.571,169.541,391.701,625.521,871.482,130.082,254.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate1.84%2.84%3.84%
Year 1 PV (M)1,085.151,095.811,106.46
Year 2 PV (M)1,198.111,221.761,245.63
Year 3 PV (M)1,298.431,337.061,376.45
Year 4 PV (M)1,387.041,442.331,499.26
Year 5 PV (M)1,464.791,538.141,614.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)41,589.8443,672.3545,837.46
Equity Value (M)48,023.3750,307.4552,679.65
Shares Outstanding (M)5,401.935,401.935,401.93
Fair Value$8.89$9.31$9.75
Upside / Downside16.97%22.54%28.32%

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