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Grenke AG (GLJ.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.75 - $10.73$9.24
Multi-Stage$22.50 - $24.85$23.65
Blended Fair Value$16.45
Current Price$16.60
Upside-0.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.22%7.35%0.480.470.530.270.630.830.690.580.440.36
YoY Growth--3.37%-11.77%96.15%-57.19%-23.86%19.55%20.00%32.17%20.50%52.48%
Dividend Yield--3.56%1.99%2.08%1.07%1.95%1.54%0.79%0.67%0.79%0.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)63.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.677.924.75
Cash Retained (M)28.5728.5728.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.67-7.92-4.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.9020.6523.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)44.7644.7644.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.460.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.780.780.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.460.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.131.241.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-7.00%-6.00%-5.00%
Fair Value$7.75$9.24$10.73
Upside / Downside-53.34%-44.32%-35.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)63.3759.5655.9952.6349.4746.5047.90
Payout Ratio54.91%61.93%68.95%75.97%82.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.8036.8938.6039.9841.0541.8544.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-7.00%-6.00%-5.00%
Year 1 PV (M)34.2434.6034.97
Year 2 PV (M)33.2533.9734.70
Year 3 PV (M)31.9633.0134.07
Year 4 PV (M)30.4631.8033.17
Year 5 PV (M)28.8330.4132.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)848.20894.79943.41
Equity Value (M)1,006.941,058.581,112.39
Shares Outstanding (M)44.7644.7644.76
Fair Value$22.50$23.65$24.85
Upside / Downside35.53%42.48%49.72%

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