Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Ford Otomotiv Sanayi A.S. (FROTO.IS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$606.23 - $2,500.78$1,561.03
Multi-Stage$302.13 - $330.37$315.99
Blended Fair Value$938.51
Current Price$99.05
Upside847.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS78.89%63.21%8.656.772.411.310.400.470.440.290.240.15
YoY Growth--27.71%180.77%83.51%226.60%-14.75%6.71%52.44%19.05%65.79%128.00%
Dividend Yield--8.31%6.00%4.13%4.40%2.08%9.86%9.54%4.68%6.85%3.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)34,197.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14,864.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)19,332.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,839.464,274.662,564.80
Cash Retained (M)19,332.4219,332.4219,332.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,839.46-4,274.66-2,564.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)12,492.9615,057.7516,767.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,719.552,719.552,719.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.595.546.17
LTM Dividend per Share5.475.475.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.595.546.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.0611.0011.63
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$606.23$1,561.03$2,500.78
Upside / Downside512.04%1,476.00%2,424.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)34,197.3136,420.1438,787.4541,308.6343,993.6946,853.2848,258.88
Payout Ratio43.47%52.77%62.08%71.39%80.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14,864.8919,220.5124,079.5629,489.0835,500.0942,167.9544,639.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)17,752.8417,921.1218,089.39
Year 2 PV (M)20,542.5520,933.8321,328.80
Year 3 PV (M)23,236.4523,903.4924,583.17
Year 4 PV (M)25,836.9426,830.5627,852.56
Year 5 PV (M)28,346.3429,715.4831,137.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)705,955.92740,053.86775,456.80
Equity Value (M)821,671.05859,358.32898,447.73
Shares Outstanding (M)2,719.552,719.552,719.55
Fair Value$302.13$315.99$330.37
Upside / Downside205.03%219.02%233.53%

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