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Definitive Analysis

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Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (FFH.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,261.22 - $31,159.69$11,180.48
Multi-Stage$5,000.65 - $5,484.59$5,238.10
Blended Fair Value$8,209.29
Current Price$1,805.40
Upside354.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.49%5.35%15.6710.5810.7911.7511.9012.0012.2210.259.839.33
YoY Growth--48.08%-1.88%-8.16%-1.31%-0.83%-1.84%19.29%4.21%5.41%0.19%
Dividend Yield--1.08%0.98%1.62%2.15%2.73%3.91%2.66%2.01%2.16%1.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,565.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)343.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,221.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)913.08570.68342.41
Cash Retained (M)4,221.804,221.804,221.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-913.08-570.68-342.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,308.723,651.133,879.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23.1723.1723.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share142.82157.60167.46
LTM Dividend per Share14.8314.8314.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share142.82157.60167.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend157.65172.43182.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.70%6.70%6.70%
Growth Rate4.08%5.08%6.08%
Fair Value$6,261.22$11,180.48$31,159.69
Upside / Downside246.81%519.28%1,625.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,565.404,797.105,040.565,296.375,565.165,847.606,023.03
Payout Ratio7.53%24.02%40.52%57.01%73.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)343.601,152.312,042.223,019.484,090.695,262.845,571.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.70%6.70%6.70%
Growth Rate4.08%5.08%6.08%
Year 1 PV (M)1,069.721,080.001,090.27
Year 2 PV (M)1,759.961,793.941,828.25
Year 3 PV (M)2,415.652,485.952,557.61
Year 4 PV (M)3,038.073,156.533,278.42
Year 5 PV (M)3,628.463,806.163,990.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)103,936.56109,026.78114,314.52
Equity Value (M)115,848.41121,349.36127,059.82
Shares Outstanding (M)23.1723.1723.17
Fair Value$5,000.65$5,238.10$5,484.59
Upside / Downside176.98%190.14%203.79%

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