Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Ferrovial SE (FER.MC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.92 - $36.50$30.50
Multi-Stage$39.76 - $43.75$41.72
Blended Fair Value$36.11
Current Price$45.26
Upside-20.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.39%-7.22%0.180.190.180.040.170.330.330.300.320.37
YoY Growth---4.41%3.03%325.81%-74.59%-48.74%-0.83%10.09%-3.54%-15.36%-2.91%
Dividend Yield--0.45%0.57%0.75%0.16%0.75%1.23%1.89%1.59%1.85%1.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,332.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)130.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,202.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)466.50291.56174.94
Cash Retained (M)2,202.502,202.502,202.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-466.50-291.56-174.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,736.001,910.942,027.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)716.96716.96716.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.422.672.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.422.672.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.602.853.01
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate-1.61%-0.61%0.39%
Fair Value$24.92$30.50$36.50
Upside / Downside-44.95%-32.62%-19.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,332.502,318.162,303.912,289.742,275.672,261.682,329.53
Payout Ratio5.57%22.46%39.34%56.23%73.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)130.00520.63906.451,287.511,663.852,035.512,154.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate-1.61%-0.61%0.39%
Year 1 PV (M)474.31479.13483.95
Year 2 PV (M)752.33767.70783.23
Year 3 PV (M)973.521,003.511,034.11
Year 4 PV (M)1,146.151,193.461,242.23
Year 5 PV (M)1,277.421,343.671,412.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,885.2325,124.0226,413.68
Equity Value (M)28,508.9529,911.4931,369.84
Shares Outstanding (M)716.96716.96716.96
Fair Value$39.76$41.72$43.75
Upside / Downside-12.14%-7.82%-3.33%

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