Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Ekadharma International Tbk (EKAD.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$84.11 - $130.19$105.48
Multi-Stage$196.55 - $215.85$206.01
Blended Fair Value$155.74
Current Price$185.00
Upside-15.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.81%17.87%8.978.929.918.836.765.883.653.201.931.73
YoY Growth--0.53%-10.01%12.29%30.57%14.97%61.12%14.05%66.20%11.18%-0.01%
Dividend Yield--4.67%3.66%3.62%3.04%2.77%3.50%2.19%2.34%1.32%2.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)31,513.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31,002.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)511.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,302.763,939.232,363.54
Cash Retained (M)511.72511.72511.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,302.76-3,939.23-2,363.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)-5,791.05-3,427.51-1,851.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,493.883,493.883,493.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1.66-0.98-0.53
LTM Dividend per Share8.878.878.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1.66-0.98-0.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.227.898.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-1.93%-0.93%0.07%
Fair Value$84.11$105.48$130.19
Upside / Downside-54.53%-42.99%-29.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)31,513.8131,221.6930,932.2730,645.5330,361.4630,080.0230,982.42
Payout Ratio98.38%96.70%95.03%93.35%91.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31,002.1030,191.6829,393.6128,607.7627,833.9427,072.0128,658.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-1.93%-0.93%0.07%
Year 1 PV (M)28,066.4928,352.6728,638.84
Year 2 PV (M)25,401.2225,921.8726,447.80
Year 3 PV (M)22,981.9223,692.1124,416.79
Year 4 PV (M)20,786.3421,647.1822,534.50
Year 5 PV (M)18,794.2419,772.1520,790.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)570,701.59600,396.76631,315.37
Equity Value (M)686,731.79719,782.75754,143.66
Shares Outstanding (M)3,493.883,493.883,493.88
Fair Value$196.55$206.01$215.85
Upside / Downside6.24%11.36%16.67%

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