Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Direct Finance of Direct Group (2006) Ltd (DIFI.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,473.28 - $6,982.66$6,542.95
Multi-Stage$1,829.02 - $2,005.95$1,915.83
Blended Fair Value$4,229.39
Current Price$577.30
Upside632.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS44.66%0.00%21.8229.3046.0424.643.963.450.003.456.890.00
YoY Growth---25.51%-36.36%86.83%522.49%14.90%0.00%-100.00%-50.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.03%5.71%10.10%3.38%0.72%0.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)103.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.6612.917.75
Cash Retained (M)28.0028.0028.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.66-12.91-7.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.3415.0920.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.902.902.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.535.206.98
LTM Dividend per Share25.9425.9425.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.535.206.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend28.4631.1332.91
WACC / Discount Rate4.93%4.93%4.93%
Growth Rate4.08%5.08%6.08%
Fair Value$3,473.28$6,542.95$6,982.66
Upside / Downside501.64%1,033.37%1,109.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)103.28108.52114.03119.82125.91132.30136.27
Payout Ratio72.89%76.31%79.73%83.16%86.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.2882.8190.9299.64109.01119.07126.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.93%4.93%4.93%
Growth Rate4.08%5.08%6.08%
Year 1 PV (M)78.1778.9279.67
Year 2 PV (M)81.0182.5884.16
Year 3 PV (M)83.8086.2488.73
Year 4 PV (M)86.5489.9293.39
Year 5 PV (M)89.2393.6098.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,889.995,129.465,378.23
Equity Value (M)5,308.745,560.725,822.31
Shares Outstanding (M)2.902.902.90
Fair Value$1,829.02$1,915.83$2,005.95
Upside / Downside216.82%231.86%247.47%

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