DDM Analysis: DHL.DE

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$152.44 - $605.56	$413.83
Multi-Stage	$88.05 - $96.35	$92.12
Blended Fair Value	$252.98
Current Price	$37.94
Upside	566.79%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	8.86%	8.40%	1.88	1.91	1.91	1.45	1.23	1.23	1.22	1.10	0.89	0.89
YoY Growth	-	-	-1.63%	0.00%	31.80%	17.65%	0.21%	0.71%	10.94%	23.66%	-0.29%	6.40%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.76%	4.87%	4.43%	3.33%	2.64%	4.96%	4.14%	3.10%	2.77%	3.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,538.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,123.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,415.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	707.60	442.25	265.35
Cash Retained (M)	1,415.00	1,415.00	1,415.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-707.60	-442.25	-265.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)	707.40	972.75	1,149.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,154.69	1,154.69	1,154.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.61	0.84	1.00
LTM Dividend per Share	1.84	1.84	1.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.61	0.84	1.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.45	2.68	2.83
WACC / Discount Rate	6.51%	6.51%	6.51%
Growth Rate	4.83%	5.83%	6.83%
Fair Value	$152.44	$413.83	$605.56
Upside / Downside	301.80%	990.76%	1,496.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,538.00	3,744.24	3,962.51	4,193.50	4,437.95	4,696.66	4,837.56
Payout Ratio	60.01%	66.00%	72.00%	78.00%	84.00%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,123.00	2,471.37	2,853.14	3,271.02	3,727.93	4,226.99	4,474.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.51%	6.51%	6.51%
Growth Rate	4.83%	5.83%	6.83%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,298.28	2,320.21	2,342.13
Year 2 PV (M)	2,467.49	2,514.79	2,562.54
Year 3 PV (M)	2,630.76	2,706.77	2,784.23
Year 4 PV (M)	2,788.25	2,896.18	3,007.20
Year 5 PV (M)	2,940.10	3,083.03	3,231.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)	88,546.82	92,851.55	97,322.09
Equity Value (M)	101,671.71	106,372.53	111,249.67
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,154.69	1,154.69	1,154.69
Fair Value	$88.05	$92.12	$96.35
Upside / Downside	132.08%	142.81%	153.94%

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Deutsche Post AG (DHL.DE)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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