Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Canadian Western Bank (CWB.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$107.80 - $604.43$205.35
Multi-Stage$75.35 - $82.43$78.83
Blended Fair Value$142.09
Current Price$57.25
Upside148.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.66%9.60%1.611.501.371.311.041.171.020.940.850.71
YoY Growth--7.75%9.04%4.72%26.58%-11.38%14.43%8.50%10.34%19.34%10.84%
Dividend Yield--2.82%5.05%4.88%3.39%3.59%3.57%3.47%2.43%2.88%3.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)296.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)156.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)140.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59.2937.0622.23
Cash Retained (M)140.40140.40140.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-59.29-37.06-22.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)81.10103.34118.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)96.7896.7896.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.841.071.22
LTM Dividend per Share1.611.611.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.841.071.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.452.682.83
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate4.66%5.66%6.66%
Fair Value$107.80$205.35$604.43
Upside / Downside88.30%258.69%955.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)296.45313.22330.93349.65369.42390.32402.03
Payout Ratio52.64%60.11%67.59%75.06%82.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)156.06188.29223.66262.44304.88351.28371.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate4.66%5.66%6.66%
Year 1 PV (M)174.25175.91177.58
Year 2 PV (M)191.55195.23198.94
Year 3 PV (M)208.00214.02220.15
Year 4 PV (M)223.62232.29241.21
Year 5 PV (M)238.45250.06262.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,256.556,561.236,877.66
Equity Value (M)7,292.417,628.747,977.67
Shares Outstanding (M)96.7896.7896.78
Fair Value$75.35$78.83$82.43
Upside / Downside31.62%37.69%43.99%

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