Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited (CENTEL-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.80 - $38.64$27.27
Multi-Stage$44.42 - $48.88$46.61
Blended Fair Value$36.94
Current Price$30.00
Upside23.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.36%0.49%0.420.000.000.000.000.650.600.550.500.40
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%8.34%9.09%10.02%24.98%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%4.22%1.32%1.12%1.41%0.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,685.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)796.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)889.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)337.12210.70126.42
Cash Retained (M)889.10889.10889.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-337.12-210.70-126.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)551.98678.40762.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,350.001,350.001,350.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.500.56
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.500.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.001.091.15
WACC / Discount Rate5.29%5.29%5.29%
Growth Rate0.24%1.24%2.24%
Fair Value$19.80$27.27$38.64
Upside / Downside-33.99%-9.10%28.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,685.601,706.481,727.621,749.031,770.691,792.631,846.41
Payout Ratio47.25%55.80%64.35%72.90%81.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)796.50952.261,111.761,275.061,442.241,613.361,707.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.29%5.29%5.29%
Growth Rate0.24%1.24%2.24%
Year 1 PV (M)895.44904.38913.31
Year 2 PV (M)983.051,002.761,022.67
Year 3 PV (M)1,060.181,092.221,124.91
Year 4 PV (M)1,127.631,173.311,220.35
Year 5 PV (M)1,186.161,246.521,309.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)54,720.4257,504.9360,401.66
Equity Value (M)59,972.8862,924.1265,992.21
Shares Outstanding (M)1,350.001,350.001,350.00
Fair Value$44.42$46.61$48.88
Upside / Downside48.08%55.37%62.94%

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