Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Banco Macro S.A. (BMA.BA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35,730.49 - $129,195.14$113,257.90
Multi-Stage$16,679.12 - $18,230.93$17,440.88
Blended Fair Value$65,349.39
Current Price$8,410.00
Upside677.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS92.90%0.00%730.260.2893.000.000.0027.3414.781.320.000.00
YoY Growth--259,773.57%-99.70%0.00%-100.00%-100.00%85.01%1,015.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.35%0.01%12.90%0.00%0.00%18.93%319.14%12.50%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)415,381.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)244,441.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)170,940.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)83,076.3651,922.7231,153.63
Cash Retained (M)170,940.74170,940.74170,940.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-83,076.36-51,922.72-31,153.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)87,864.38119,018.02139,787.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)639.41639.41639.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share137.41186.14218.62
LTM Dividend per Share382.29382.29382.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share137.41186.14218.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend519.70568.43600.91
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35,730.49$113,257.90$129,195.14
Upside / Downside324.86%1,246.71%1,436.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)415,381.79442,381.60471,136.41501,760.27534,374.69569,109.05586,182.32
Payout Ratio58.85%65.08%71.31%77.54%83.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)244,441.05287,892.46335,959.79389,059.54447,642.81512,198.14542,218.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)266,446.07268,971.63271,497.18
Year 2 PV (M)287,769.90293,251.11298,784.03
Year 3 PV (M)308,427.54317,281.39326,303.08
Year 4 PV (M)328,433.72341,064.35354,055.83
Year 5 PV (M)347,802.86364,601.87382,043.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,125,966.999,566,754.6110,024,412.21
Equity Value (M)10,664,847.0811,151,924.9511,657,096.14
Shares Outstanding (M)639.41639.41639.41
Fair Value$16,679.12$17,440.88$18,230.93
Upside / Downside98.32%107.38%116.78%

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