Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Blackmores Limited (BKL.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.85 - $19.73$16.74
Multi-Stage$27.19 - $29.92$28.53
Blended Fair Value$22.64
Current Price$70.40
Upside-67.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS-21.26%-1.59%0.990.230.552.222.783.263.211.261.010.87
YoY Growth--325.03%-57.94%-75.16%-20.08%-14.70%1.50%154.17%25.52%15.05%-24.45%
Dividend Yield--1.40%0.32%0.71%2.47%1.95%3.40%2.44%1.68%3.70%3.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.544.712.83
Cash Retained (M)23.5923.5923.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.54-4.71-2.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.0518.8820.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17.9717.9717.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.891.051.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.780.780.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.891.051.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.681.831.94
WACC / Discount Rate8.09%8.09%8.09%
Growth Rate-3.59%-2.59%-1.59%
Fair Value$13.85$16.74$19.73
Upside / Downside-80.33%-76.22%-71.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37.6836.7035.7534.8333.9233.0534.04
Payout Ratio37.39%47.91%58.43%68.96%79.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.0917.5820.8924.0126.9629.7431.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.09%8.09%8.09%
Growth Rate-3.59%-2.59%-1.59%
Year 1 PV (M)16.1016.2716.44
Year 2 PV (M)17.5217.8818.25
Year 3 PV (M)18.4419.0219.61
Year 4 PV (M)18.9619.7520.58
Year 5 PV (M)19.1520.1621.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)398.53419.63441.61
Equity Value (M)488.69512.71537.71
Shares Outstanding (M)17.9717.9717.97
Fair Value$27.19$28.53$29.92
Upside / Downside-61.37%-59.47%-57.50%

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