Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. (BBAR.BA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17,684.51 - $101,397.07$32,394.95
Multi-Stage$10,349.12 - $11,323.42$10,827.35
Blended Fair Value$21,611.15
Current Price$6,580.00
Upside228.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS78.21%123.76%147.740.4513.080.000.008.221.583.652.390.00
YoY Growth--32,455.02%-96.53%0.00%0.00%-100.00%419.18%-56.61%52.87%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.86%0.01%2.43%0.00%0.00%11.15%1.16%2.34%2.56%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)323,482.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45,124.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)278,357.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)64,696.4140,435.2624,261.15
Cash Retained (M)278,357.58278,357.58278,357.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-64,696.41-40,435.26-24,261.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)213,661.17237,922.32254,096.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)613.30613.30613.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share348.38387.94414.31
LTM Dividend per Share73.5873.5873.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share348.38387.94414.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend421.96461.51487.89
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17,684.51$32,394.95$101,397.07
Upside / Downside168.76%392.32%1,440.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)323,482.05344,508.38366,901.43390,750.02416,148.77443,198.44456,494.39
Payout Ratio13.95%29.16%44.37%59.58%74.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45,124.47100,457.56162,793.30232,808.25311,237.34398,878.60422,257.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)92,128.1593,001.4093,874.66
Year 2 PV (M)136,916.56139,524.43142,156.91
Year 3 PV (M)179,567.42184,722.16189,974.61
Year 4 PV (M)220,156.04228,622.62237,331.08
Year 5 PV (M)258,755.37271,253.35284,229.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,459,588.415,723,288.575,997,081.16
Equity Value (M)6,347,111.956,640,412.536,944,648.08
Shares Outstanding (M)613.30613.30613.30
Fair Value$10,349.12$10,827.35$11,323.42
Upside / Downside57.28%64.55%72.09%

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