DDM Analysis: AN3PG.AX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$49.30 - $81.24	$63.49
Multi-Stage	$85.82 - $94.15	$89.91
Blended Fair Value	$76.70
Current Price	$101.63
Upside	-24.53%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	3.27%	3.22%	1.61	1.35	1.16	0.87	0.88	1.37	1.40	1.35	1.40	1.16
YoY Growth	-	-	19.91%	15.75%	33.52%	-0.94%	-36.01%	-2.02%	4.04%	-3.90%	21.29%	-1.67%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.59%	1.32%	1.10%	0.81%	0.84%	1.27%	1.32%	1.27%	1.39%	1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	14,094.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	8,954.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	5,140.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,818.80	1,761.75	1,057.05
Cash Retained (M)	5,140.00	5,140.00	5,140.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,818.80	-1,761.75	-1,057.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,321.20	3,378.25	4,082.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,252.37	3,252.37	3,252.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.71	1.04	1.26
LTM Dividend per Share	2.75	2.75	2.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.71	1.04	1.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.47	3.79	4.01
WACC / Discount Rate	7.09%	7.09%	7.09%
Growth Rate	0.06%	1.06%	2.06%
Fair Value	$49.30	$63.49	$81.24
Upside / Downside	-51.49%	-37.53%	-20.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	14,094.00	14,242.77	14,393.12	14,545.05	14,698.58	14,853.74	15,299.35
Payout Ratio	63.53%	68.82%	74.12%	79.41%	84.71%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	8,954.00	9,802.51	10,667.94	11,550.55	12,450.60	13,368.37	14,151.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.09%	7.09%	7.09%
Growth Rate	0.06%	1.06%	2.06%
Year 1 PV (M)	9,062.86	9,153.44	9,244.01
Year 2 PV (M)	9,118.77	9,301.95	9,486.96
Year 3 PV (M)	9,128.21	9,404.65	9,686.62
Year 4 PV (M)	9,097.06	9,466.23	9,846.52
Year 5 PV (M)	9,030.61	9,491.00	9,969.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)	233,676.48	245,589.57	257,983.66
Equity Value (M)	279,113.98	292,406.84	306,217.75
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,252.37	3,252.37	3,252.37
Fair Value	$85.82	$89.91	$94.15
Upside / Downside	-15.56%	-11.54%	-7.36%

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Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (AN3PG.AX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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