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Definitive Analysis

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Argan, Inc. (AGX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$149.72 - $306.31$209.81
Multi-Stage$134.06 - $146.77$140.29
Blended Fair Value$175.05
Current Price$306.21
Upside-42.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS3.18%6.04%1.291.040.991.113.331.111.111.101.080.73
YoY Growth--24.42%5.21%-10.90%-66.71%201.18%-0.13%0.60%1.89%47.04%2.09%
Dividend Yield--0.84%1.72%2.43%3.01%6.64%2.94%2.31%2.75%1.58%2.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)119.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)104.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.9914.998.99
Cash Retained (M)104.68104.68104.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.99-14.99-8.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)80.6989.6995.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.1314.1314.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.716.356.77
LTM Dividend per Share1.081.081.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.716.356.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.797.427.85
WACC / Discount Rate8.75%8.75%8.75%
Growth Rate4.04%5.04%6.04%
Fair Value$149.72$209.81$306.31
Upside / Downside-51.11%-31.48%0.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)119.93125.97132.32138.98145.98153.33157.93
Payout Ratio12.72%28.17%43.63%59.09%74.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.2535.4957.7382.12108.82138.00146.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.75%8.75%8.75%
Growth Rate4.04%5.04%6.04%
Year 1 PV (M)32.3232.6332.94
Year 2 PV (M)47.8948.8149.74
Year 3 PV (M)62.0463.8465.68
Year 4 PV (M)74.8777.7980.80
Year 5 PV (M)86.4790.7195.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,591.131,669.081,750.06
Equity Value (M)1,894.721,982.872,074.34
Shares Outstanding (M)14.1314.1314.13
Fair Value$134.06$140.29$146.77
Upside / Downside-56.22%-54.18%-52.07%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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