Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Staffing & Employment ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$303.68 - $1,233.12$519.79
Multi-Stage$195.49 - $213.36$204.26
Blended Fair Value$362.03
Current Price$293.50
Upside23.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.28%9.97%5.885.354.674.073.863.603.172.612.442.31
YoY Growth--9.89%14.68%14.74%5.30%7.14%13.73%21.56%6.88%5.47%1.72%
Dividend Yield--2.00%1.93%1.94%1.80%1.93%2.58%1.96%1.73%2.23%2.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,136.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,453.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,683.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)827.26517.04310.22
Cash Retained (M)1,683.301,683.301,683.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-827.26-517.04-310.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)856.041,166.261,373.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)408.01408.01408.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.102.863.37
LTM Dividend per Share6.016.016.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.102.863.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.118.879.38
WACC / Discount Rate8.32%8.32%8.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$303.68$519.79$1,233.12
Upside / Downside3.47%77.10%320.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,136.304,405.164,691.494,996.445,321.215,667.095,837.10
Payout Ratio59.30%65.44%71.58%77.72%83.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,453.002,882.883,358.293,883.324,462.415,100.385,399.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.32%8.32%8.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,636.522,661.512,686.50
Year 2 PV (M)2,808.842,862.342,916.34
Year 3 PV (M)2,970.413,055.673,142.56
Year 4 PV (M)3,121.673,241.723,365.20
Year 5 PV (M)3,263.053,420.663,584.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)64,960.9668,098.6071,356.32
Equity Value (M)79,761.4483,340.5087,051.22
Shares Outstanding (M)408.01408.01408.01
Fair Value$195.49$204.26$213.36
Upside / Downside-33.39%-30.40%-27.31%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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