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Aqaseem Factory for Chemicals and Plastics Co. (9539.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.21 - $8.05$6.53
Multi-Stage$11.98 - $13.18$12.57
Blended Fair Value$9.55
Current Price$7.31
Upside30.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.370.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.13%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.520.950.57
Cash Retained (M)2.612.612.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.52-0.95-0.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.091.662.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13.5313.5313.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.21$6.53$8.05
Upside / Downside-28.73%-10.70%10.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7.617.537.467.387.317.247.45
Payout Ratio65.70%70.56%75.42%80.28%85.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.005.325.635.936.226.516.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4.944.995.04
Year 2 PV (M)4.864.965.06
Year 3 PV (M)4.774.915.06
Year 4 PV (M)4.654.845.04
Year 5 PV (M)4.534.765.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)138.37145.57153.08
Equity Value (M)162.12170.05178.30
Shares Outstanding (M)13.5313.5313.53
Fair Value$11.98$12.57$13.18
Upside / Downside63.90%71.91%80.25%

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