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Arabian Food & Dairy Factories Company (9536.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$60.94 - $94.70$76.55
Multi-Stage$141.51 - $155.82$148.53
Blended Fair Value$112.54
Current Price$68.95
Upside63.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-16.25%0.00%1.502.543.173.184.893.640.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---40.94%-19.95%-0.18%-35.04%34.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.67%2.75%3.53%3.44%5.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.821.140.68
Cash Retained (M)5.205.205.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.82-1.14-0.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.384.064.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.411.411.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.402.883.20
LTM Dividend per Share2.772.772.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.402.883.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.175.655.97
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$60.94$76.55$94.70
Upside / Downside-11.61%11.02%37.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9.119.028.938.848.758.668.92
Payout Ratio42.88%52.31%61.73%71.15%80.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.914.725.516.297.057.808.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4.394.444.48
Year 2 PV (M)4.784.884.97
Year 3 PV (M)5.085.235.39
Year 4 PV (M)5.305.525.75
Year 5 PV (M)5.465.746.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)174.53183.62193.08
Equity Value (M)199.53209.42219.71
Shares Outstanding (M)1.411.411.41
Fair Value$141.51$148.53$155.82
Upside / Downside105.24%115.41%126.00%

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