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Definitive Analysis

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Fukuoka REIT Corporation (8968.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$289,436.91 - $583,356.10$403,396.64
Multi-Stage$431,397.43 - $473,120.73$451,864.11
Blended Fair Value$427,630.37
Current Price$184,400.00
Upside131.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.59%3.66%7,970.977,228.516,790.676,764.786,320.367,012.896,960.386,223.276,168.596,403.17
YoY Growth--10.27%6.45%0.38%7.03%-9.88%0.75%11.84%0.89%-3.66%15.10%
Dividend Yield--4.32%4.87%4.19%3.97%3.60%5.14%3.90%3.65%3.75%3.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,275.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,080.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,194.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,855.041,784.401,070.64
Cash Retained (M)5,194.575,194.575,194.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,855.04-1,784.40-1,070.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,339.533,410.174,123.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.830.830.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share2,810.614,096.834,954.31
LTM Dividend per Share10,909.0710,909.0710,909.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share2,810.614,096.834,954.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend13,719.6815,005.9015,863.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate1.66%2.66%3.66%
Fair Value$289,436.91$403,396.64$583,356.10
Upside / Downside56.96%118.76%216.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,275.1814,655.2115,045.3615,445.8915,857.0916,279.2416,767.61
Payout Ratio63.61%68.89%74.17%79.44%84.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,080.6210,095.8211,158.6512,270.9113,434.4814,651.3115,510.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate1.66%2.66%3.66%
Year 1 PV (M)9,388.989,481.339,573.68
Year 2 PV (M)9,650.839,841.6210,034.28
Year 3 PV (M)9,869.7510,163.8710,463.79
Year 4 PV (M)10,049.0910,450.3510,863.51
Year 5 PV (M)10,191.9810,703.2111,234.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)309,940.94325,487.46341,651.66
Equity Value (M)359,091.56376,127.84393,821.67
Shares Outstanding (M)0.830.830.83
Fair Value$431,397.43$451,864.11$473,120.73
Upside / Downside133.95%145.05%156.57%

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