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Definitive Analysis

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Mitsubishi HC Capital Inc. (8593.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8,677.39 - $22,431.05$21,021.18
Multi-Stage$3,206.45 - $3,509.55$3,355.21
Blended Fair Value$12,188.20
Current Price$1,222.50
Upside896.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.89%21.84%38.9735.9629.9520.6415.6416.4112.388.818.256.55
YoY Growth--8.38%20.04%45.11%31.96%-4.66%32.57%40.43%6.78%25.99%21.18%
Dividend Yield--3.67%3.35%3.51%3.30%2.63%3.22%2.13%1.29%1.34%1.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)162,236.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56,058.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)106,178.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32,447.2020,279.5012,167.70
Cash Retained (M)106,178.00106,178.00106,178.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-32,447.20-20,279.50-12,167.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)73,730.8085,898.5094,010.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,438.391,438.391,438.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share51.2659.7265.36
LTM Dividend per Share38.9738.9738.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share51.2659.7265.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend90.2398.69104.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8,677.39$21,021.18$22,431.05
Upside / Downside609.81%1,619.52%1,734.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)162,236.00172,781.34184,012.13195,972.92208,711.15222,277.38228,945.70
Payout Ratio34.55%45.64%56.73%67.82%78.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56,058.0078,862.06104,393.80132,911.47164,695.38200,049.64211,774.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)73,286.8173,981.4774,676.13
Year 2 PV (M)90,155.0691,872.2693,605.66
Year 3 PV (M)106,668.35109,730.41112,850.52
Year 4 PV (M)122,832.20127,555.98132,414.71
Year 5 PV (M)138,652.05145,348.99152,302.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,080,536.874,277,628.334,482,262.94
Equity Value (M)4,612,131.334,826,117.445,048,112.21
Shares Outstanding (M)1,438.391,438.391,438.39
Fair Value$3,206.45$3,355.21$3,509.55
Upside / Downside162.29%174.46%187.08%

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