DDM Analysis: 8440.TWO

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.13 - $6.50	$4.41
Multi-Stage	$6.21 - $6.83	$6.51
Blended Fair Value	$5.46
Current Price	$25.45
Upside	-78.54%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-19.69%	0.00%	0.13	0.30	0.45	0.23	0.30	0.38	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-58.25%	-33.33%	100.00%	-25.00%	-20.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.39%	1.11%	1.41%	0.48%	2.69%	4.87%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	9.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	7.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1.71

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1.81	1.13	0.68
Cash Retained (M)	1.71	1.71	1.71
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1.81	-1.13	-0.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-0.10	0.58	1.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	50.48	50.48	50.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.01	0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	0.15	0.15	0.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.01	0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.14	0.16	0.17
WACC / Discount Rate	5.47%	5.47%	5.47%
Growth Rate	0.84%	1.84%	2.84%
Fair Value	$3.13	$4.41	$6.50
Upside / Downside	-87.70%	-82.67%	-74.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	9.05	9.22	9.39	9.56	9.74	9.92	10.22
Payout Ratio	81.09%	82.87%	84.65%	86.44%	88.22%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	7.34	7.64	7.95	8.27	8.59	8.93	9.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.47%	5.47%	5.47%
Growth Rate	0.84%	1.84%	2.84%
Year 1 PV (M)	7.17	7.25	7.32
Year 2 PV (M)	7.01	7.15	7.29
Year 3 PV (M)	6.84	7.05	7.26
Year 4 PV (M)	6.68	6.94	7.22
Year 5 PV (M)	6.51	6.84	7.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)	279.47	293.60	308.30
Equity Value (M)	313.68	328.83	344.57
Shares Outstanding (M)	50.48	50.48	50.48
Fair Value	$6.21	$6.51	$6.83
Upside / Downside	-75.58%	-74.40%	-73.18%

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CRS	Carpenter Technology Corporation	0.24%	$0.80	9.74%
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PRIM	Primoris Services Corporation	0.23%	$0.30	5.83%
TER	Teradyne, Inc.	0.23%	$0.48	17.39%
FOCS	Focus Financial Partners Inc.	0.22%	$0.12	19.23%
QCRH	QCR Holdings, Inc.	0.22%	$0.18	2.50%
RMAX	RE/MAX Holdings, Inc.	0.22%	$0.02	2.70%
VSEC	VSE Corporation	0.22%	$0.40	30.98%
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ACA	Arcosa, Inc.	0.19%	$0.20	6.66%
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USLM	United States Lime & Minerals, Inc.	0.19%	$0.23	5.04%
AEIS	Advanced Energy Industries, Inc.	0.18%	$0.40	10.65%
BELFA	Bel Fuse Inc.	0.18%	$0.28	5.31%
TILE	Interface, Inc.	0.18%	$0.05	2.63%
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AYI	Acuity Brands, Inc.	0.17%	$0.65	5.19%
BDC	Belden Inc.	0.17%	$0.20	3.53%
FIX	Comfort Systems USA, Inc.	0.17%	$1.70	7.18%
KNSL	Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.	0.17%	$0.66	3.24%
STCN	Steel Connect, Inc.	0.17%	$0.02	1.98%
VVI	Viad Corp	0.17%	$0.07	0.54%
ALNT	Allient Inc.	0.16%	$0.09	7.91%
CLSK	CleanSpark, Inc.	0.16%	$0.02	1.41%
EME	EMCOR Group, Inc.	0.16%	$1.01	4.01%
ESE	ESCO Technologies Inc.	0.16%	$0.32	2.76%
CW	Curtiss-Wright Corporation	0.15%	$0.87	7.08%
MU	Micron Technology, Inc.	0.15%	$0.46	6.11%
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JBL	Jabil Inc.	0.14%	$0.33	5.48%
PFIE	Profire Energy, Inc.	0.14%	$0.00	1.99%
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GNW	Genworth Financial, Inc.	0.13%	$0.01	2.27%
ONIT	Onity Group Inc.	0.13%	$0.06	1.46%
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IR	Ingersoll Rand Inc.	0.10%	$0.08	5.89%
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E&E Recycling,Inc. (8440.TWO)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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