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Definitive Analysis

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JSP Corporation (7942.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7,153.81 - $40,003.22$13,655.66
Multi-Stage$5,897.23 - $6,463.23$6,174.95
Blended Fair Value$9,915.31
Current Price$1,941.00
Upside410.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.06%8.89%79.9856.8556.8556.8556.8556.8556.8562.5451.1734.11
YoY Growth--40.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-9.09%22.22%50.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.24%2.46%3.04%4.08%3.56%3.90%2.71%1.87%1.51%1.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,349.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,096.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,253.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,069.80668.63401.18
Cash Retained (M)3,253.003,253.003,253.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,069.80-668.63-401.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,183.202,584.382,851.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)26.2126.2126.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share83.3098.61108.82
LTM Dividend per Share79.9879.9879.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share83.3098.61108.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend163.28178.59188.79
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.94%4.94%5.94%
Fair Value$7,153.81$13,655.66$40,003.22
Upside / Downside268.56%603.54%1,960.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,349.005,613.495,891.056,182.346,488.036,808.847,013.10
Payout Ratio39.18%49.35%59.51%69.67%79.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,096.002,770.143,505.824,307.485,179.856,127.956,487.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.94%4.94%5.94%
Year 1 PV (M)2,580.722,605.542,630.37
Year 2 PV (M)3,042.763,101.583,160.98
Year 3 PV (M)3,482.893,584.383,687.83
Year 4 PV (M)3,901.874,054.204,210.95
Year 5 PV (M)4,300.414,511.294,730.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)137,243.99143,974.02150,965.53
Equity Value (M)154,552.63161,831.03169,386.02
Shares Outstanding (M)26.2126.2126.21
Fair Value$5,897.23$6,174.95$6,463.23
Upside / Downside203.82%218.13%232.98%

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