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Definitive Analysis

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Duopharma Biotech Berhad (7148.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.98 - $17.26$16.18
Multi-Stage$2.52 - $2.76$2.64
Blended Fair Value$9.41
Current Price$1.32
Upside612.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.76%1.04%0.030.010.010.050.010.010.010.020.020.03
YoY Growth--204.30%7.90%-81.75%521.75%19.32%-53.96%-27.41%-18.75%-28.89%29.18%
Dividend Yield--2.33%0.76%0.55%3.14%0.36%0.61%1.41%2.09%3.12%3.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)83.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.7010.446.26
Cash Retained (M)49.8349.8349.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.70-10.44-6.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.1339.3943.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)961.94961.94961.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.48%6.48%7.48%
Fair Value$6.98$16.18$17.26
Upside / Downside429.03%1,125.39%1,207.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)83.5088.9194.68100.82107.35114.31117.74
Payout Ratio40.32%50.26%60.19%70.13%80.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.6744.6856.9970.7085.95102.88108.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.48%6.48%7.48%
Year 1 PV (M)41.5541.9442.34
Year 2 PV (M)49.2850.2151.16
Year 3 PV (M)56.8458.4860.14
Year 4 PV (M)64.2666.7369.27
Year 5 PV (M)71.5274.9878.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,143.132,246.662,354.15
Equity Value (M)2,426.582,539.002,655.63
Shares Outstanding (M)961.94961.94961.94
Fair Value$2.52$2.64$2.76
Upside / Downside91.10%99.96%109.14%

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