Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Smoore International Holdings Limited (6969.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TobaccoSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.79 - $3.93$3.36
Multi-Stage$4.20 - $4.60$4.39
Blended Fair Value$3.88
Current Price$16.64
Upside-76.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162014
DPS-13.52%0.00%0.090.120.240.380.000.190.030.010.000.00
YoY Growth---23.16%-50.35%-38.91%0.00%-100.00%552.22%351.96%817.79%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.72%2.03%2.20%1.19%0.00%0.67%0.10%0.02%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,723.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,111.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,611.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)544.63340.39204.24
Cash Retained (M)1,611.711,611.711,611.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-544.63-340.39-204.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,067.081,271.321,407.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,159.556,159.556,159.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate10.41%10.41%10.41%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.79$3.36$3.93
Upside / Downside-83.22%-79.83%-76.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,723.162,695.932,668.972,642.282,615.852,589.702,667.39
Payout Ratio40.81%50.65%60.49%70.33%80.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,111.441,365.531,614.421,858.202,096.942,330.732,467.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.41%10.41%10.41%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,224.281,236.771,249.27
Year 2 PV (M)1,297.711,324.331,351.22
Year 3 PV (M)1,339.161,380.581,422.84
Year 4 PV (M)1,354.901,411.051,468.94
Year 5 PV (M)1,350.181,420.491,493.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,287.4420,291.7821,337.53
Equity Value (M)25,853.6827,065.0028,323.49
Shares Outstanding (M)6,159.556,159.556,159.55
Fair Value$4.20$4.39$4.60
Upside / Downside-74.78%-73.59%-72.37%

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