Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Awinic Technology Co.,Ltd. (688798.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.36 - $63.67$42.01
Multi-Stage$21.46 - $23.43$22.43
Blended Fair Value$32.22
Current Price$92.43
Upside-65.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-17.53%49.61%0.120.080.620.030.230.310.010.010.000.00
YoY Growth--40.44%-86.44%1,909.87%-86.54%-25.91%2,110.34%-5.20%687.92%25.27%-28.78%
Dividend Yield--0.16%0.15%0.74%0.03%0.12%0.17%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)352.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)88.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)264.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)70.5444.0926.45
Cash Retained (M)264.70264.70264.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-70.54-44.09-26.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)194.16220.61238.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)231.60231.60231.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.840.951.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.840.951.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.221.331.41
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$29.36$42.01$63.67
Upside / Downside-68.24%-54.55%-31.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)352.69375.62400.03426.04453.73483.22497.72
Payout Ratio24.95%37.96%50.97%63.98%76.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)88.00142.58203.90272.58349.32434.90460.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)128.55129.76130.98
Year 2 PV (M)165.73168.88172.07
Year 3 PV (M)199.74205.47211.31
Year 4 PV (M)230.78239.65248.78
Year 5 PV (M)259.02271.54284.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,986.524,179.074,378.99
Equity Value (M)4,970.345,194.385,426.67
Shares Outstanding (M)231.60231.60231.60
Fair Value$21.46$22.43$23.43
Upside / Downside-76.78%-75.73%-74.65%

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