Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Supcon Technology Co., Ltd. (688777.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$176.92 - $208.44$195.34
Multi-Stage$121.79 - $133.60$127.58
Blended Fair Value$161.46
Current Price$55.08
Upside193.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS23.84%0.00%0.720.540.240.160.000.250.090.150.010.00
YoY Growth--32.97%120.51%54.76%3,497.92%-98.22%176.16%-40.55%2,043.52%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.35%1.15%0.34%0.34%0.01%0.33%0.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)831.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)568.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)263.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)166.38103.9962.39
Cash Retained (M)263.81263.81263.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-166.38-103.99-62.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)97.43159.82201.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)793.69793.69793.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.200.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.720.720.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.200.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$176.92$195.34$208.44
Upside / Downside221.21%254.65%278.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)831.88885.96943.541,004.871,070.191,139.751,173.94
Payout Ratio68.29%72.63%76.97%81.32%85.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)568.08643.47726.27817.11916.701,025.781,085.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)623.73629.64635.55
Year 2 PV (M)682.39695.38708.51
Year 3 PV (M)744.19765.55787.32
Year 4 PV (M)809.27840.39872.40
Year 5 PV (M)877.78920.17964.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)92,922.3797,410.55102,070.51
Equity Value (M)96,659.71101,261.69106,038.48
Shares Outstanding (M)793.69793.69793.69
Fair Value$121.79$127.58$133.60
Upside / Downside121.11%131.63%142.56%

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