Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nantong Guosheng Intelligence Technology Group Co., Ltd. (688558.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$190.04 - $223.90$209.83
Multi-Stage$134.86 - $147.97$141.30
Blended Fair Value$175.56
Current Price$31.57
Upside456.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.89%46.69%0.500.500.500.300.000.120.120.270.470.01
YoY Growth---0.53%0.00%66.67%0.00%-100.00%4.21%-57.89%-42.24%5,613.73%-23.15%
Dividend Yield--2.00%2.25%1.33%0.86%0.00%0.27%0.26%0.62%1.07%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)148.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)79.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)68.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.7518.5911.15
Cash Retained (M)68.9368.9368.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.75-18.59-11.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.1850.3457.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)132.10132.10132.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.380.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.380.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.900.991.04
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$190.04$209.83$223.90
Upside / Downside501.96%564.64%609.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)148.73158.39168.69179.65191.33203.77209.88
Payout Ratio53.65%60.92%68.19%75.46%82.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)79.8096.50115.03135.57158.29183.39194.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)94.1795.0695.95
Year 2 PV (M)109.54111.63113.74
Year 3 PV (M)125.98129.60133.28
Year 4 PV (M)143.54149.06154.74
Year 5 PV (M)162.29170.13178.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,180.2218,010.0318,871.60
Equity Value (M)17,815.7418,665.5119,547.58
Shares Outstanding (M)132.10132.10132.10
Fair Value$134.86$141.30$147.97
Upside / Downside327.19%347.56%368.71%

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