Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Novogene Co., Ltd. (688315.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.60 - $12.36$8.94
Multi-Stage$5.56 - $6.08$5.81
Blended Fair Value$7.38
Current Price$15.83
Upside-53.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS52.81%0.00%0.050.050.060.010.020.010.000.000.010.00
YoY Growth---0.36%-19.79%878.68%-73.24%298.13%317.79%-69.96%-44.89%156.34%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.31%0.32%0.20%0.02%0.08%0.02%0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)175.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)154.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.0421.9013.14
Cash Retained (M)154.96154.96154.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.04-21.90-13.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)119.92133.06141.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)412.57412.57412.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.320.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.320.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate4.59%5.59%6.59%
Fair Value$6.60$8.94$12.36
Upside / Downside-58.34%-43.51%-21.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)175.21185.00195.33206.24217.76229.93236.82
Payout Ratio11.56%27.25%42.94%58.62%74.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.2550.4183.87120.91161.82206.93219.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate4.59%5.59%6.59%
Year 1 PV (M)45.4045.8446.27
Year 2 PV (M)68.0469.3470.66
Year 3 PV (M)88.3590.9193.51
Year 4 PV (M)106.50110.64114.89
Year 5 PV (M)122.67128.65134.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,862.251,953.002,047.25
Equity Value (M)2,293.212,398.362,507.44
Shares Outstanding (M)412.57412.57412.57
Fair Value$5.56$5.81$6.08
Upside / Downside-64.89%-63.28%-61.61%

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