Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kaili Catalyst & New Materials Co.,Ltd. (688269.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$145.56 - $171.49$160.71
Multi-Stage$320.12 - $351.39$335.46
Blended Fair Value$248.09
Current Price$40.90
Upside506.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.71%13.44%0.590.740.750.480.450.230.210.170.090.14
YoY Growth---20.19%-1.05%54.64%6.57%96.95%12.33%18.10%87.90%-34.36%-15.87%
Dividend Yield--2.19%2.56%0.99%0.74%0.80%0.41%0.36%0.31%0.16%0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)111.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)35.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.3313.968.37
Cash Retained (M)35.3735.3735.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.33-13.96-8.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.0421.4227.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)129.50129.50129.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.170.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.170.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.690.750.80
WACC / Discount Rate-19.19%-19.19%-19.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$145.56$160.71$171.49
Upside / Downside255.89%292.94%319.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)111.66118.92126.65134.89143.65152.99157.58
Payout Ratio68.32%72.66%76.99%81.33%85.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.2986.4197.51109.70123.06137.69145.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-19.19%-19.19%-19.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)105.92106.92107.92
Year 2 PV (M)146.52149.31152.13
Year 3 PV (M)202.05207.85213.76
Year 4 PV (M)277.84288.52299.51
Year 5 PV (M)381.07399.47418.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,340.1442,288.5844,311.60
Equity Value (M)41,453.5343,440.6645,503.51
Shares Outstanding (M)129.50129.50129.50
Fair Value$320.12$335.46$351.39
Upside / Downside682.68%720.20%759.15%

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