Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co., Ltd (688239.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$46.98 - $226.58$101.44
Multi-Stage$25.11 - $27.47$26.27
Blended Fair Value$63.86
Current Price$43.99
Upside45.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.34%21.26%0.350.440.330.100.110.080.050.040.040.04
YoY Growth---20.16%35.03%212.88%-5.50%32.22%79.59%26.87%-8.38%-8.27%-14.81%
Dividend Yield--1.07%1.67%0.57%0.25%0.37%0.28%0.15%0.00%0.13%0.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)187.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)139.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.4123.3814.03
Cash Retained (M)139.40139.40139.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.41-23.38-14.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)102.00116.02125.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)164.16164.16164.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.620.710.76
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.620.710.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.911.001.05
WACC / Discount Rate7.55%7.55%7.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$46.98$101.44$226.58
Upside / Downside6.81%130.61%415.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)187.03199.18212.13225.92240.60256.24263.93
Payout Ratio25.46%38.37%51.28%64.19%77.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.6376.43108.78145.01185.49230.62244.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.55%7.55%7.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)70.4071.0771.73
Year 2 PV (M)92.2994.0595.82
Year 3 PV (M)113.32116.57119.89
Year 4 PV (M)133.52138.65143.93
Year 5 PV (M)152.91160.29167.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,560.203,732.163,910.70
Equity Value (M)4,122.644,312.804,510.04
Shares Outstanding (M)164.16164.16164.16
Fair Value$25.11$26.27$27.47
Upside / Downside-42.91%-40.28%-37.54%

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