Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company

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Industry

Sector

Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co., Ltd. (688017.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.84 - $17.78$12.31
Multi-Stage$6.95 - $7.58$7.26
Blended Fair Value$9.78
Current Price$180.78
Upside-94.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS60.00%0.00%0.350.150.450.170.000.030.180.020.000.00
YoY Growth--134.86%-66.60%162.45%0.00%-100.00%-81.77%756.78%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.24%0.12%0.41%0.23%0.00%0.08%0.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)91.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)68.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.2011.386.83
Cash Retained (M)68.1568.1568.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.20-11.38-6.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.9556.7761.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)179.25179.25179.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.320.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.320.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.440.47
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.13%6.13%7.13%
Fair Value$8.84$12.31$17.78
Upside / Downside-95.11%-93.19%-90.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)91.0096.59102.51108.80115.47122.56126.23
Payout Ratio25.12%38.09%51.07%64.05%77.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.8636.7952.3569.6888.94110.30116.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.13%6.13%7.13%
Year 1 PV (M)33.1433.4633.77
Year 2 PV (M)42.4843.2944.11
Year 3 PV (M)50.9452.4053.90
Year 4 PV (M)58.5760.8363.15
Year 5 PV (M)65.4368.6071.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)994.441,042.641,092.70
Equity Value (M)1,244.991,301.221,359.52
Shares Outstanding (M)179.25179.25179.25
Fair Value$6.95$7.26$7.58
Upside / Downside-96.16%-95.98%-95.80%

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